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Friday, 14 May 2010 11:22 |
Accident at Russian plant for the extraction of coking coal - mine "Raspadskaya" - would increase the deficit of raw materials in Ukraine.
This, according to experts, will cause a further rise in price of coal.
Today "Raspadskaya" is the leading exporter of Russian coal in Ukraine. It accounts for about 12% of total imports of coking coal to Ukrainian market. However, as a result of an accident, this import is likely to be drastically reduced.
Experts predict that because of the disaster in the next month or two, the mine will be idle, and the restoration of all facilities affected by the explosion of methane could take a year and a half.
"Cessation of the production of coking raw materials at "Raspadskaya" is likely to lead to the reduction in the supply of coal in Russia, and as one of the possible consequences to a decrease in coal supplies to Ukraine", - said Vladimir Husak, the director of the Division of Coal and Coke "Metinvest".
In projections of IR "Dragon Capital" because of the accident at the "Raspadskaya" shortage of coking coal in the Ukrainian market will grow for at least by 12-15%.
Moreover, taking into account the summer demand for a lengthy lease and traditional Ukrainian problems with the railroads, it is not the most pessimistic forecast.
The increase in the deficit of raw materials, no doubt, will lead to its getting more expensive. "Coal prices will rise by 10-15%", - said a senior analyst at the investment company "Troika Dialog" Ivan Kharchuk.
The expert of "Dragon Capital Sergei Gajda also agrees to this fact. "Coal in Ukraine will be by $ 10-20 more expensive than the current value of $ 160-170 per tonne, the price of imported raw materials from Russia be more than $ 200 per ton, - suggests Gajda.
According to experts, the problems with coking coal will affect all metallurgists. Raw materials from "Raspadskaya" was bought almost all smelters, including even "Metinvest" which has its coal assets, belonging to Rinat Akhmetov.
The fact is that the quality of Ukrainian raw materials requires the supplements of high quality brands of Russian coal, which is mainly produced from "Raspadskaya".
Experts believe that metallurgists will solve the problem by importing from alternative markets.
"We can expect further growth of coal shipments to Ukraine by sea" - suggests Vladimir Husak.
According to him, Ukraine will require new facilities for the unloading of coal in deep-water ports capable of receiving large vessels.
"Steelmakers try to solve the deficit problem at the expense of imports from the U.S. and Australia", - predicts Kharchuk.
Australia is now one of the major exporters of coal in the world.
And considering that in the U.S. there are assets of "Metinvest" and parent compdny "ArcelorMittal", it is logical to assume that these companies will deliver coal to their Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises from the US.
Moreover, according to Ivan Kharchuk, the rising price of coal activated the extraction of raw materials in Ukrainian mines.
"With rising prices for coal the mining of raw materials in Ukraine will become more profitable, that will allow the mines to increase its production", - says the analyst.
Also, according to experts, "Coke hunger" may drive domestic metallurgists to seek alternative raw materials.
Thus, an analyst of the investment company "BG Capital" Eugene Dubogryz considers that the Ukrainian metallurgists can partially replace coke while smelting iron in blast furnaces to natural gas.
"Now steelworkers get gas at $ 230-240 per 1 thousand cubic meters. Cox costs them $ 290-300 per ton. In such circumstances, they can successfully compensate the lack of coke by natural gas ", - explains Dubogryz.
In any case, metallurgists will still have to develop new areas of import of raw materials.
The fact is that even with the restoration of production at "Raspadskaya" the priority market for Russian companies will be the countries of Far East.
First, China and South Korea. In these countries mine recently increased its delivery. Kuzbass miners cut shipments to Ukraine.
So, in the past year Ukraine had 73% of total imports from Russia while for the I quarter of 2010 the index has fallen to 40%. The rest goes to China and Korea. |
