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Until the election of the new Ukrainian president only three weeks remain. Sociological services have very little time for election studies. According to the law, less than two weeks before the polling day it is prohibited to publish the results of opinion polls.
It is interesting to turn to the poll, which was held by the International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES) in December, with headquarters in Washington. Because the probability of independence from any of the candidates in these sociologists is higher than their Ukrainian counterparts.
The picture of political preferences is as follows. The leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych in the presidential election can get 31 percent of the votes, the Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko - 19.
In the first round, a certain level of support will be also given to a banker-centrist Sergei Tigipko (4.8 percent), former speaker of parliament and leader of "the Front of change" Arseniy Yatsenyuk (4.7), Communist leader Petro Symonenko (3.8), the current president Viktor Yushchenko (3.5) and the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, the leader of block named after him Vladimir Litvin (2,8).
Since none of the candidates will be able to win more than 50 percent in the first round, the winner will be determined in the second round. According to the research, Yanukovych will win with the rate 42 per cent compared to 28 percent got by Timoshenko. This 18 respondents said they would vote against both, others are hesitating. If Yatsenyuk and Yanukovych will come to the second round, then the leader of the Party of Regions will get 42 per cent, while the ex-Speaker - 23.
The research also showed that many Ukrainians treat Yanukovich negatively, while nevertheless his positive rating is the highest among all candidates. 55 percent of respondents treat him negatively, 42 - positively. As for Timoshenko, these figures are 67 and 30 percent, respectively. The data for the other major presidential candidates is as follows: Yatsenyuk - 56 and 32, Tigipko - 50 and 32, Litvin - 60 and 31, Simonenko - 69 and 22, Yushchenko - 83 and 13.
We can assume that the second figure in this pair (rejection-liking) - is the electoral potential of the candidate (and it is the limit). This means that under certain circumstances Yatsenyuk and Tigipko will get 32 percent of voters, Lytvyn - 31 percent, Symonenko - 22, and Yushchenko will receive 13.
Similarly, one can assume that today 83 percent of voters are not ready to vote for Yushchenko under any circumstances, while Tymoshenko is rejected by two-thirds of the electorate.
Recently, another electoral part was investigated by the sociologists. Thus, in late November, FOM-Ukraine figured out that Yanukovych is popular mainly among urban residents, but Tymoshenko is more popular with the rural population. It should be noted that, such distribution of sympathies of Ukrainian citizens, frankly speaking, is not to the advantage of the current head of the Ukrainian government.
The reason is very simple. As Ukrainian State Committee on Statistics reported on Tuesday, the population of Ukraine as of November 1, is 45,999.934 people, of which 31,536.444 - are urban and 14,462.490 people live in rural areas.
However, the accuracy of public opinion surveys in Ukraine has always left much to be desired. Thus, two or three years ago before the elections to the Verkhovna Rada the sociologists have reported the error in their calculations in the amount of 2.3 percent or higher depending on the number of respondents. In fact the same (comparing the predictions with the outcome of elections) differences in some cases reached 10 percent!
Nevertheless, quite a stable map of electoral sympathies has already developed. It is confirmed that irrespective of who and when conducting surveys. It is only with one exception: Five years ago the leading candidate from the western and central regions was Viktor Yushchenko, and now - Yulia Tymoshenko.
Incidentally, it is curious to recall the results of the previous elections. In the first round, Yushchenko won in all 16 regions of Western and Central Ukraine and in Kiev. Yanukovych has become a leader in the eight areas of eastern and southern Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Nikolaev, Kherson, Odessa), the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol.
A few more numbers can be added here. Among the 11.1 million voters who voted for Yushchenko, nearly 40 percent were the residents of Galicia (Lvov, Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil region), and Kiev and Kiev region. Among the 10.97 million voters who voted for Yanukovych, over a third - are the inhabitants of his native Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk regions).
This electoral geography has preserved in the second round, in which Viktor Yanukovych has won, and the third, in which Viktor Yushchenko defeated. And the division of Ukraine into the "Orange" and "Non-orange" remained unchanged during the parliamentary elections - in 2006, and in 2007.
The only difference is that the main force, representing the West and the Center ( opposed to the Party of Regions as the winner of the East and South), is Yulia Tymoshenko's Bloc, but not pro-presidential forces. And now the polls show that in areas where previously Yushchenko was the leader, Tymoshenko comes first. And where Yanukovych won - he should win again.
South-East hadn't believed Yushchenko as the president for 5 years. If the trend, noted by sociologists in recent weeks, will continue until election day, the new president will be Viktor Yanukovych. But will the entire country accept his presidency? And whether that option is possible for Ukraine in general? In practice it appears that an attempt to gather the authority of the opposite side will cause the failure on his own side. And vice versa.
Now you can get less confrontational image, if we discard Galicia or exclude from the consideration of the Donbas (in both cases, the support of another "no-self" candidate is very small and varies within the statistical error).
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